Satisfaction and adaptation in voting behavior: an empirical exploration

Dynamic models of learning and adaptation have provided realistic predictions in terms of voting behavior. This study aims at contributing to their scant empirical verification. We develop a learning algorithm based on bounded rationality estimating the pattern of learning process through a two-stage econometric model. The analysis links voting behavior to past choices and economic satisfaction derived from previous period election and state of the economy. This represents a novelty in the literature on voting that assumes given voter preferences. Results show that persistence is positively affected by the combination of income changes and past behavior and by union membership.voting; bounded rationality; learning; political accountability

Satisfaction and adaptation in voting behavior: an empirical exploration

Dynamic models of learning and adaptation have provided realistic predictions in terms of voting behavior. This study aims at contributing to their scant empirical verification. We develop a learning algorithm based on bounded rationality estimating the pattern of learning process through a two-stage econometric model. The analysis links voting behavior to past choices and economic satisfaction derived from previous period election and state of the economy. This represents a novelty in the literature on voting that assumes given voter preferences. Results show that persistence is positively affected by the combination of income changes and past behavior and by union membership.voting; bounded rationality; learning; political accountability

Adaptive voting: an empirical analysis of participation and choice

Dynamic models of learning and adaptation have provided realistic predictions in terms of voting behavior. This study aims at contributing to their empirical verification by investigating voting behavior in terms of participation as well as choice. We test through panel data methods an outcome-based learning mechanism based on the following assumptions: (a) people expect that the party they do not support will be unable to bring economic improvements; (b) they receive a feedback whose impact depends on the consistency between their last voting behavior and personal economic improvements (or worsening) from the last election; (c) they tend to discard choices associated to an inconsistent feedback. Results show that feedbacks of this sort affect persistence of voting behavior, interpreted as participation and voting choice. Age and trade union affiliation reinforce this adaptive behavior. The analysis also investigates the intensity of the learning feedback, differentiating between a strong inconsistent feedback, which leads to a vote switch in favor of the opponent party, and a weak inconsistent feedback, which induces just abstention rather than a vote switch.voting, bounded rationality, learning, political accountability

Voting Behaviour in a dynamic perspective: a survey

Traditional rational choice theories of voting state that, in a scenario with positive voting costs, people will vote only when they are pivotal. This hypothesis is contradicted by the frequent observation of relatively high rates of electoral turnout. Over the last few decades, several approaches have been developed in attempts to explain the paradox of not voting and to define more realistic behavioural rules, both within the rational voter framework and in opposition to that paradigm. This study offers a critical review of bounded rationality-based dynamic models. This class of model seems to be more promising than previous models in that it offers results consistent with observed voting patterns and investigates voter choices while assuming that social processes develop continuously

Voting Behaviour in a dynamic perspective: a survey

Traditional rational choice theories of voting state that, in a scenario with positive voting costs, people will vote only when they are pivotal. This hypothesis is contradicted by the frequent observation of relatively high rates of electoral turnout. Over the last few decades, several approaches have been developed in attempts to explain the paradox of not voting and to define more realistic behavioural rules, both within the rational voter framework and in opposition to that paradigm. This study offers a critical review of bounded rationality-based dynamic models. This class of model seems to be more promising than previous models in that it offers results consistent with observed voting patterns and investigates voter choices while assuming that social processes develop continuously

Pharmacophore modelling as useful tool in the lead compounds identification and optimization

The goal of computer-aided molecular design methods in modern medicinal chemistry is to reduce the overall cost and time associated to the discovery and development of a new drug by identifying the most promising candidates to focus the experimental efforts on. Very often, many drug discovery projects have reached already a well-advanced stage before detailed structural data on the protein target have become available. A possible consequence is that often, medicinal chemists develop novel compounds for a target using preliminary structure–activity information, together with the theoretical models of interactions. Only responses that are consistent with the working hypothesis contribute to an evolution of the used models. Within this framework, the pharmacophore approach has proven to be successful, allowing the perception and understanding of key interactions between a receptor and a ligand[1]. In recent years, our research group exploited this useful modeling tool with the aim to identify new chemical entities and/or optimizing known lead compounds to obtain more active drugs in the field of antitumor, antiviral, and antibacterial drugs. In this communication, we present an overview of our recent works in which we used the pharmacophore modelling approach combined with induced fit docking, 3D-QSAR approach, and HTVS for the analysis of drug-receptor interactions and the discovery of new inhibitors of IKKβ, Bcl-xl, and c-kit tyrosine kinase, all targets involved into the initiation and the development of different types of cancer[2-5]

A new tool to process forecast meteorological data for atmospheric pollution dispersion simulations of accident scenarios: A Sicily-based case study

Emergency response plans to mitigate the severity of the accidental release of hazardous compounds in the air have become a primary concern in view of the many adverse events occurred over the years in high-risk plants. To do this, an accurate estimate of forecast meteorological data to be used in dispersion models can be very useful to respond in advance to emergency situations. In this field, FORCALM is a new tool developed to elaborate European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data on a 3D computational domain with a high-resolution grid. FORCALM data can be used to perform predictive simulations of impacts on local and regional levels by using CALPUFF modelling system. A case study relevant to an accident, occurred in the “Mediterranea” Refinery at Milazzo (Italy) in 2014, has been also examined for validation purposes. A comparison with results obtained by using CALMET modelling system and observed meteorological data, covering the area under study, is also described. The validation work has allowed confirming that predictive assessments, carried out with the help of FORCALM, lead to information regarding potential environmental impacts with a good degree of accuracy

Adaptive voting: an empirical analysis of participation and choice

Dynamic models of learning and adaptation have provided realistic predictions in terms of voting behavior. This study aims at contributing to their empirical verification by investigating voting behavior in terms of participation as well as choice. We test through panel data methods an outcome-based learning mechanism based on the following assumptions: (a) people expect that the party they do not support will be unable to bring economic improvements; (b) they receive a feedback whose impact depends on the consistency between their last voting behavior and personal economic improvements (or worsening) from the last election; (c) they tend to discard choices associated to an inconsistent feedback. Results show that feedbacks of this sort affect persistence of voting behavior, interpreted as participation and voting choice. Age and trade union affiliation reinforce this adaptive behavior. The analysis also investigates the intensity of the learning feedback, differentiating between a strong inconsistent feedback, which leads to a vote switch in favor of the opponent party, and a weak inconsistent feedback, which induces just abstention rather than a vote switch

Satisfaction and adaptation in voting behavior: an empirical exploration

Dynamic models of learning and adaptation have provided realistic predictions in terms of voting behavior. This study aims at contributing to their scant empirical verification. We develop a learning algorithm based on bounded rationality estimating the pattern of learning process through a two-stage econometric model. The analysis links voting behavior to past choices and economic satisfaction derived from previous period election and state of the economy. This represents a novelty in the literature on voting that assumes given voter preferences. Results show that persistence is positively affected by the combination of income changes and past behavior and by union membership

The effect of social interaction and cultural consumption on voting turnout

Theory of rational voting states that, with positive voting costs, people would vote only when they are pivotal. This hypothesis is contradicted by the frequent observation of relatively high rates of electoral turnout. In the last decades several solutions to the paradox have been investigated. Within a behavioral approach, studies suggest that dynamics emerging in a group may induce its members to conform to cooperative or ethical behavior and consequently encourage voting participation. Such dynamics remind the source of social capital defined by Bourdieu (1986) as “the nature of the social obligations, connections, and networks available to you”. In this paper we investigate the influence of social interaction and cultural consumption on voting turnout using data from British Household Panel Surve. The analysis highlights the role of hierarchical groups on electoral participation as well as the effect of residential mobility in weakining social connections